Facebook and the Future of Social Media

So Facebook is continuing to grow on a global basis, they’ve found a way to monetize mobile, they’re continuously adding new features and data streams, and while all this is happening, pundits and others who’ve never created anything in their lives (other than an opinion), are harping about Facebook’s eventual demise.

So what is the most likely scenario for a juggernaut like Facebook? Maybe the best frame of reference is other juggernauts from history, and the most obvious example to me seems to be some of the preceding technology giants from the past. There was a period when you could not step in any direction within the tech space and not bump into IBM on some level. Same thing with Digital Equipment (and anyone under 30 says, “Who?”). These are companies that completely dominated their ecosystem at their peak, but everyone, no matter how compelling or efficient, cannot stay on top of the pile, that is not how the free-market system works. Remember AltaVista’s dominance? Then a little start-up with a funny name came along, and AltaVista is a long gone memory.

So is Facebook likely to face the same fate? There’s never been a website with this many users across so many countries, so from a domain perspective there isn’t really an antecedent frame of reference. They could shift their business model completely (like IBM) and morph into something almost unrecognizable. They could teeter and fall (like DEC), and in the process spawn a whole new ecosystem of startups and cottage industries, or they could get outsmarted by two ten year olds who in a couple of years figure out something much better, and the whole world changes again.

Based on what I’ve seen (and I’ve seen a lot), a high probability scenario is the Piranha effect. Facebook is like a giant cow slowly fording a stream filled with potential little predators, who individually can’t do much damage, but collectively could knock the company off balance. The real problem with Facebook in the long run is that at the surface it’s a one-size fits all model. They have created infrastructure that allows internal specialized groups to form (and they are, at high speed), which is effectively a form of bifurcation. But Facebook has also shown people the potential of what can be done with social media. There are tons of smart, motivated, and creative people out there busily developing permutations of Facebook that will be optimized to meet a specific niche that is not looking for a subset of a one-size-fits-all model. So a potentially higher probability scenario? If Zuckerberg is as smart as he seems to be, I’m guessing they could actually start spinning out cohorts with common interests (think of a voluntary version of the ATT breakup). Any slice of a pie with a billion+ members is still going to be a statistically significant media site, and if they do this correctly they can still continue to make a fortune. So will Facebook keeps its dominance? No, not in their present form. Will it be around in some form for the foreseeable future? Definitely, and it will be cool and interesting to see how this plays out.